President Donald Trump has endorsed Sen. Darline Graham in the race for a full term in her late brother’s Senate seat, but South Carolina Republicans increasingly doubt she can win.
Graham was appointed earlier this month to serve the remaining months of Lindsey Graham’s term following his death. Trump pushed for her appointment and quickly endorsed her campaign for the full six-year term.
The Aug. 11 Republican primary, however, features a dozen candidates, including Reps. Ralph Norman and Russell Fry and former Gov. Mark Sanford. The crowded field is expected to produce an Aug. 25 runoff, where Graham’s lack of an established political base could prove decisive, according to The Washington Post.
“People are going to be independently minded in this, and I don’t think that Trump is the end all, be all that he used to be,” said CJ Westfall, chairman of the Dorchester County Republican Party.
Republican operatives and conservative activists point to several problems for Graham. She has never held elected office, remains largely unknown statewide and has only weeks to persuade voters that she deserves a full Senate term.
She must also contend with her brother’s complicated standing among conservatives. Lindsey Graham’s foreign-policy hawkishness and willingness to work with Democrats frequently angered the party’s MAGA wing, and he spent approximately $20 million this year defeating a primary challenge from the right.
Some voters also resent the appearance that the seat is being passed from one member of the Graham family to another.
Chad Walldorf, a longtime Republican donor and activist, praised Graham’s work advocating for people with disabilities and leading the South Carolina Commission for the Blind.
“But it’s just hard for that to suddenly translate into a six-year Senate term in a month,” Walldorf said. “And that’s the leap voters are being asked to make.”
Graham has moved quickly to establish conservative credentials. She has endorsed gun rights, abortion restrictions, law enforcement and limits on birthright citizenship. She also supported Trump’s demand that Senate Majority Leader John Thune keep senators in Washington until they pass the Save America Act.
Her campaign plans to present her as more conservative than her brother. But private polling has not shown her pulling significantly ahead, and several South Carolina Republicans believe she would struggle to survive a runoff.
“Darline is really in for a dogfight,” said one Republican official involved in Senate races, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The likely turnout may make her position even more difficult. Randy Page, executive vice president of the Palmetto Family Council, noted that only 10 percent of Republican voters participated in the state’s June gubernatorial runoff.
Small electorates, he said, tend to favor someone who “frankly, is known as a movement conservative.”
That description more closely fits Norman, who is widely viewed as the early favorite. He has statewide name recognition, an existing campaign organization and endorsements from Sens. Rick Scott of Florida and Mike Lee of Utah, along with several conservative sheriffs.
Fry has been endorsed by 40 Republican state legislators. Graham has support from Rep. William Timmons and several Republican senators but has not received public endorsements from Sen. Tim Scott, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, or Thune.
Trump had reportedly planned to endorse Fry before Graham entered the race.
Graham also has limited financial support from her brother’s old campaign operation. Some remaining funds will be transferred to the NRSC to assist her, but the amount is expected to be well below $1 million.
Grassroots activists have further noted that election records show Graham did not vote in South Carolina’s 2024 presidential primary, which Trump won against former Gov. Nikki Haley.
The White House has not said whether Trump plans to campaign for her.
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