Republicans trailing in several closely watched Senate races have reason for hope: Recent elections show that September polls have repeatedly understated GOP support in states central to the fight for the Senate. CNN data analyst Harry Enten highlighted that pattern, pointing to polling misses larger than the leads Democrats now hold in several competitive contests.
CNN: Republicans usually out perform their September polling
Iowa: 🔴 GOP Outperformed by 9
Texas: 🔴 GOP Outperformed by 7
Ohio: 🔴 GOP Outperformed by 6
Michigan: 🔴 GOP Outperformed by 5 pic.twitter.com/s2xjQwaz0r— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 5, 2026
In the 2024 presidential and Senate contests Enten examined, Republicans outperformed September polling averages by roughly 9 points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio and 5 points in Michigan. The pattern extended beyond elections with Donald Trump on the ballot. In the 2018 midterms, Republican candidates in those same states exceeded September polling averages by 6 to 8 points.
Those gaps could prove decisive if they recur in November. Current Democratic leads in competitive Senate races in Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Texas are smaller than the historical misses Enten highlighted, leaving Republicans with a plausible path to victories that early surveys might obscure. For GOP candidates facing discouraging numbers, the record offers a concrete reason to keep pressing their campaigns.
Enten’s analysis comes as at least one pollster has admitted that he’s having a difficult time reaching rural Republican voters, saying they simply refuse to talk to him and want to be left alone:
We decided to do two versions of this poll b/c of 2 problems in our sample that we wrote about:
1. LOTS of Rs unhappy with Trump are lying about their 2024 vote.
2. Rural Iowa Rs ignored our survey. We think this could be a Canary in the Cornfields for Iowa polling this year. https://t.co/C3Czue1jZe
— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) October 6, 2026
Past polling errors do not guarantee another Republican surge, and their size has varied by election and race. But Enten’s analysis is a reminder that a September lead is no assurance of a November victory—and that Republicans have recently been stronger at the ballot box than those polls suggested.
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