Public anger over a sweeping fraud scandal is giving Republicans an opening in Minnesota’s closely contested U.S. Senate race, NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki said Wednesday.
Appearing on the “Today” show, Kornacki said Democrats face growing pressure in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 2002. “There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working against Democrats,” he said, pointing to fraud in Medicaid and social services programs that prosecutors estimate could involve roughly $9 billion, The Hill reported.
Steve Kornacki sees tide "working against" Democrat in the Minnesota Senate race
“There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working against Democrats” pic.twitter.com/lJ8GtOE2cK
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 22, 2026
The scandal has become a central issue in the race between Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter. Democratic Gov. Tim Walz declined to seek reelection amid scrutiny of the fraud, leaving Flanagan to defend the administration’s response as she campaigns for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith.
Tafoya has argued that Flanagan bears responsibility as the state’s second-highest official. During a recent debate, she said that under Flanagan’s watch “Minnesota saw billions and billions and billions of fraud dollars walk out the door.”
Flanagan has pointed to her support for an independent inspector general’s office and tougher penalties. She has also agreed with Walz that the administration should have acted sooner.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently shifted the contest from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” A Minnesota Star Tribune poll earlier this month put Flanagan ahead 47% to 43%, within the survey’s margin of error, while other polling averages show her holding a narrow lead.
Minnesota still leans Democratic, having voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. But the fraud scandal has put Democrats on the defensive and given Republicans a chance to break their long losing streak in the state’s Senate contests.
With early voting underway and Election Day less than two weeks away, the race has drawn national attention as a possible Republican pickup in an otherwise difficult midterm environment for the party.
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