A new University of New Hampshire poll shows former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu narrowly leading Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in the race for New Hampshire’s open U.S. Senate seat, adding to signs that Democrats may face a tougher contest than expected in the Granite State.
The survey found Sununu ahead 45% to 43% in a potential general-election matchup, the first public poll to show the Republican in front. Sununu is the overwhelming favorite for the GOP nomination, while Pappas is expected to win the Democratic primary. Both parties vote Sept. 8.
Pappas has warned Democrats for months that the race should not be treated as safe.
“This is a purple state. It’s a highly competitive race. It’s been that way for a year,” he told CNN’s Manu Raju.
While much of the national attention has focused on competitive Senate races in Alaska, Maine, Michigan and Texas, Pappas said Democrats “needs to focus on New Hampshire.”
“The math doesn’t really work for Democrats to pick up the four seats we need if we’re taking steps backward in the seats we already hold,” Pappas said. “We’ve got to hold this race in order for the rest of the math to work for Democrats to take back the Senate majority.”
A Pappas loss would be the first Democratic defeat in a New Hampshire Senate race since 2010. It would also be unusual in heavily Democratic New England, where Democrats currently hold 32 of the region’s 33 House and Senate seats. Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins holds the lone exception.
National political observers are beginning to pay more attention.
“This year’s Senate race is a nail-biter, and Republicans view the race as one of their pickup opportunities,” New Republic columnist Virginia Heffernan wrote.
Veteran political reporter Mark Halperin, founder of the 2Way platform, pointed to the Sununu family’s long electoral history in the state.
“The New Hampshire wise guys who tell me constantly that Republicans don’t win federal elections in the Granite State should check the Sununu family won-lost record,” Halperin said. “My favorite part of the race now is that Congressman Pappas feels compelled to insist the race will be close to make sure he raises money and gets help from the national party.”
Louis Jacobson, co-author of “The Almanac of American Politics,” currently rates the race “Lean Democratic,” but said New Hampshire could receive considerably more national attention once the primaries are over.
“Perhaps people are just a little bit used to Democrats winning the Senate races in New Hampshire, whereas there’s a sort of novelty of the Democrats really competing in a serious way in Texas, Iowa and Alaska,” Jacobson said. “There’s also just a general issue of the late primary. People nationally aren’t focusing on states until their primary is done. Now it’s going to happen shortly, and so it might re-enter the conversation.”
New Hampshire has moved somewhat toward Democrats in recent federal elections, Jacobson said, even as voters have continued electing Republicans to statewide offices.
“It is a state that has become a little bluer over the past couple of election cycles, but that still feels comfortable electing Republicans like the current governor and the past governor,” he said. “I think Republicans can still pick their spots. I think it’s harder on the federal level because of the nationalization of elections, but it’s a small state, and so people feel a little bit more of a connection personally to their candidates.”
Pappas said the Sununu family name itself helps explain why Republicans worked to recruit the former senator.
“It’s one of the reasons why Republicans were very interested in recruiting any member of the Sununu family to run, because they’ve got universal name recognition and a brand that’s been established for almost 50 years in this state.”
Pappas said President Trump’s approval ratings and the economy could give Democrats an opening, but argued that opposition to Trump alone would not be enough.
“We’ve got to do some work to connect with voters in this state about building an affordable economy, taking on a reckless president and restoring checks and balances,” Pappas said. “At the end of the day, the voters are fair here. We have a path to win this race, but it’s going to be hard-fought.”
Halperin similarly described the race as unsettled.
“The state of the contest mirrors the national election: I can make the case for either side winning, and I defy anyone to express certainty about the outcome at this point. There are strong arguments on both sides.”
The campaigns now head toward the Sept. 8 primaries with New Hampshire’s large bloc of independent voters likely to play a decisive role in the general election.
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