Two Senate races separated by narrow margins Wednesday morning could help determine whether Republicans have a viable path back to the majority in 2028 or face a longer recovery stretching toward 2032. With Democrats already assured control, the unresolved contests in Mississippi and Alaska will determine how much ground Republicans must regain and whether two seats in traditionally Republican states remain beyond their reach for another six years.
Democrats had secured 54 seats to Republicans’ 44, with those two races outstanding, according to NBC News. Republican victories in both would limit the Democratic majority to 54–46, while Democratic wins would expand it to 56–44. That difference would substantially change the challenge facing Republicans in the next presidential election.
🚨 BREAKING: Democrat Mary Peltola just TOOK THE LEAD in the Alaska US Senate race over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), with 74% of the vote counted
REALLY not good.
She's now 626 ahead — Mississippi + Alaska would give Dems a 56-seat majority ‼️
We're going to see if Peltola wins and… pic.twitter.com/7Uaz1yXD1V
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2026
If Republicans hold both seats, they would need a net gain of four in 2028 to reach a 50–50 Senate, enough to organize the chamber if they also win the White House. Losing both would raise that requirement to six. Without the vice presidency, Republicans would need five or seven pickups, respectively, to secure an outright majority.
The distinction matters because the 2028 map offers opportunities but little room for error. Democratic seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania will be on the ballot, along with New Hampshire and, following this year’s special election, Ohio. A four-seat gain would already require a strong Republican performance; a six-seat gain would demand a much broader sweep while protecting the party’s own vulnerable incumbents.
In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom led Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 43 votes in early Wednesday returns, with approximately 96 percent of the expected vote counted. Colom had 462,821 votes to Hyde-Smith’s 462,778, while independent Ty Pinkins received 19,935. The race remained uncalled, and Mississippi does not require a runoff in a regularly scheduled federal general election.
Thousands of affidavit ballots remained outstanding, leaving both campaigns awaiting additional returns. A Colom victory would make him the first Black senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction and the first Democrat elected to represent the state in the Senate since 1982. The district attorney’s challenge also carried a personal political history: Hyde-Smith blocked his nomination to a federal judgeship during the Biden administration.
In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan were separated by less than a percentage point, with more than 70 percent of the vote counted Wednesday morning. Outstanding ballots and the state’s ranked-choice voting process could delay a final outcome for days. Peltola previously won Alaska’s statewide House seat in 2022, demonstrating an ability to attract voters beyond her party’s base. If she wins, it will be because her campaign added a second, fake, “Dan Sullivan” to the ballot, allowing her to game the system of rank choice voting in the state.
For Republicans, losses in these states would carry consequences beyond the immediate seat count. The Mississippi and Alaska seats being contested this year would not ordinarily return to the ballot until 2032. A national Republican rebound in 2028 would therefore offer no direct opportunity to reclaim them, leaving the party to find enough pickups elsewhere.
That does not make a Republican majority impossible before 2032. The 2030 elections offer another opening, including Democratic-held seats in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. But Republicans would also have to defend seats in Pennsylvania and Ohio that year, making that election another contest with risks on both sides.
The remaining ballots in Mississippi and Alaska could consequently help separate a two-year Republican setback from a much longer period in the minority. Holding both would preserve a more manageable route back in 2028. Losing both would give Democrats additional protection against a Republican recovery and postpone the next regularly scheduled chance to reclaim those particular seats until 2032.
Justices Alito and Thomas may want to get regular health checkups.
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