US Senate Fountain in front of the Capitol Building

House Majority Looks Bleak, but Senate Takeover Near Imminent

Republicans are looking at a near certain loss of their House majority in 2024, but they also see a near certain path to take back the Senate.

With slim margins in the House and a tough election-year map, Republicans are facing the likely outcome of the loss of their majority.

Democrats only need to flip five seats to take back the House, and there are nearly a dozen competitive seats with Republican incumbents in California and New York alone.

One of those is the New York district that was flipped by embattled Republican Representative George Santos, which is almost guaranteed to flip back to Democrats.

Additionally, 18 Republicans are running in districts that voted for Biden in the 2020 election. Just 5 Democrats are running in districts that voted for former President Donald Trump.

However, it’s not all grim. The Senate outlook is as bleak for Democrats as the House is Republicans.

Senate Map is Brutal for Democrats

Democrats must defend 23 Senate seats compared to just 11 for Republicans, and the map is rough.

Three of the Democrat seats – in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio – are in states Trump won easily over Biden in 2020.

Arizona, where Senator Kyrsten Sinema ditched the Democrat party label to become independent, is also considered a toss-up.

“I don’t think it’s unfair to say it’s absolutely brutal for the national Democratic Party, as it always is in this cycle,” said former Sinema aide John LaBombard of the 2024 Senate map.

If they hold the White House, Democrats can only afford to lose one seat in the Senate, and privately they are not confident.

“The Senate map is tough. You’ve got a lot of swing people who actually have to toe the line up for reelection. Tester is a really tough defend,” said one Democratic operative of Senator John Tester (D-MT).

Another Democrat aide said much will depend on whether Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) decides to run again and who his Republican opponent will be.

“The numbers seem to show that he would be much more competitive against [Representative Alex] Mooney, who is really far to the right, though [it] would be very challenging to beat [Governor Jim] Justice, who’s quite popular.”

Across the board, Democrat strategists say they will point to abortion to make their case to voters.


    • Don’t discount that awful SCOTUS ruling that’s going to give the dems up to ten seats in the House.

      • Please NAME any SCOTUS ruling you refer to. Not everyone knows what case you are referring to, and they usually won’t look up a case YOU don’t care enough about to name.

        • Probably Dobbs. You know, the one that decided that if a right is not mentioned in the Constitution it doesn’t exist because all rights come from the government.

  1. The Democrats should not take back control of the House in 2024. In Nebraska they are targeting the 2nd district for takeover. Tony Vargas whom Don Bacon defeated in 2022 announced that he is running again. For some crazy reason the Omaha portion of the district has voted for far left extremists the last 3 times that Bacon has won. In 2018 & 2020 the Democrat’s candidate was a leftist woman in the Bernie Sanders mode and Tony Vargas is just as extreme. His district in the Nebraska Legislature must be a liberal one given that they elected him. Areas in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District outside of Omaha are more conservative than the Omaha portion helping Don Bacon to be elected without winning in Omaha. There are enough conservatives in Omaha for Don Bacon to keep the vote in Omaha close enough for his wins in the surrounding areas to be sufficient to win the district. Twice Democrats have won one Electoral College vote in Nebraska by winning in the 2nd Congressional District since Nebraska’s Electoral College vote law was passed for candidates to receive 2 votes for winning statewide and 1 vote for each congressional district won in the Presidential Election. Obama won the vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in 2008 and Biden won the district in 2020.

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