Republicans appear to have pulled off a rare feat in modern campaign engineering: encouraging a Democratic congresswoman to enter a Senate race they believe she cannot win. U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s decision to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in 2026 has set off a political chain reaction—one that GOP strategists quietly hoped for and now openly celebrate.
According to recent reporting by The Daily Caller, the National Republican Senatorial Committee began testing Crockett’s name in internal surveys as early as July. The results startled them—not because Crockett looked strong in a general election, but because she polled well among Democrats considering a primary run. That insight soon matured into a plan.
“When we saw the results, we were like, ‘OK, we got to disseminate this far and wide,’” a source familiar with the strategy told NOTUS. From there, Republicans launched what they describe as a months-long push to nudge Crockett toward the race. The outreach—conducted through calls, messages, and quiet guidance to Democratic voters—was designed to create visible demand for her candidacy. “That was really a sustained effort that we orchestrated across the ecosystem for several months,” the source said. “Not only was it getting positive news coverage, but her office was directly having traffic driven to it in terms of phone calls urging her to run.”
The gambit rested on a simple calculus: among the potential Democratic contenders, Republicans viewed Crockett as the weakest matchup for Cornyn, who is facing his own unrest within the GOP from Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. Crockett’s outspoken rhetoric—and the national attention it attracts—has long made her a lightning rod in Texas politics.
NRSC Communications Director Joanna Rodriguez underscored that point by invoking Crockett’s own doubts. “Crockett said herself no Texas Democrat is beating John Cornyn, and the threat of her in the U.S. Senate makes it clearer now than ever that Cornyn is the only conservative who will keep Texas red and safeguard President Trump’s Senate Majority,” Rodriguez said.
Her comment referenced Crockett’s October 30 appearance on Politico’s The Conversation, where she offered a candid assessment of the political terrain. “I’m going to be flat out with you and tell you that I don’t think that there’s a Democrat that can take out Cornyn,” she said. She added that any decision to run would depend on whether data showed a real path beyond the primary: “For me, I would be making a very last-minute decision because it’s not just about winning the primary. You gotta win the general.”
Her late entry has reshaped the Democratic field. State Rep. James Talarico remains in the race, but former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred abruptly exited just before Crockett’s announcement, warning that an extended intraparty battle would weaken the eventual nominee. Allred has since redirected his ambitions to the Democratic primary in Texas’s 33rd Congressional District, a move that has deepened factional tensions as Rep. Julie Johnson seeks the neighboring seat after redistricting.
Crockett’s opening campaign ad, featuring audio of former President Donald Trump calling her a “low IQ person,” immediately signaled that her campaign would lean into confrontation—a posture that energizes her base but carries risks statewide. Her entry has amplified debate among Democrats over whether she can mount a credible general-election challenge or whether new contenders should jump in to stop her.
For Republicans, though, the early verdict is clear: the plan worked. Now they wait to see whether Crockett’s leap into the Senate race reshapes Texas politics in the way they intended—or whether Democrats defy expectations in a state where internal divisions have often proved more damaging than external opposition.
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