One of the longstanding power brokers in Washington may be on the ropes. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has surged to a commanding lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican Senate primary, according to a new poll. The survey, conducted by Texas State University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, shows Paxton with 50% support to Cornyn’s 28%—a 22-point gap that reflects a dramatic realignment within the Texas GOP electorate.
The poll highlights more than just Paxton’s momentum—it captures a party at war with itself. A Tea Party alumnus and high-profile Trump loyalist, Paxton is presenting himself as the outsider candidate ready to “take on the swamp.” His unapologetically combative style, once seen as a liability, is increasingly viewed by grassroots conservatives as a qualification. Among voters identifying as “strong Republicans,” Paxton leads Cornyn by more than two-to-one.
Cornyn, first elected in 2002 and once the second-ranking Republican in the Senate, is suddenly on defense. He faces backlash from the right over his support for a bipartisan gun safety bill following the Uvalde school shooting—legislation that included enhanced background checks and red flag provisions. That vote, celebrated by moderates, has become a rallying point for Paxton’s campaign, which casts Cornyn as an out-of-touch relic of a pre-Trump GOP.
Despite Paxton’s well-documented legal and ethical baggage—including a years-long securities fraud case and a high-profile impeachment—Republican voters don’t appear to mind. His 2023 impeachment by the Texas House was overturned by the Senate, and a 2024 plea deal ended his criminal exposure without a conviction. Cornyn has leaned into those controversies, painting the race as a referendum on character and competence. But so far, that message hasn’t broken through.
Senator Cornyn said, “I’m willing to bet my career and my future and this job on my belief that character does matter still.”
The broader GOP divide is unmistakable: populist insurgents versus institutional Republicans. Paxton’s rise reflects the ongoing ascendancy of the former, while Cornyn represents a fading model of GOP governance—pragmatic, procedural, and willing to compromise. Analysts agree that one wild card remains: Donald Trump. Nearly half of Republican primary voters say a Trump endorsement would sway their vote, but the former president has yet to choose sides, telling reporters only, “I like Paxton, I like Cornyn, they’re both good people. So, I’ll make a decision somewhere along the line. But you have two very good men.”
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There is only one reason that corny was elected for his past two terms is that in spite of being a rino he was still better (but not much) than his dem opponent.
Excellent news !!! Cornyn is so close to being a closet Rino it’s hard to believe he hasn’t been booted years ago.